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Timing the Market PDF Print E-mail
Written by Administrator   
Friday, 04 December 2009 15:18
Recently a commercial on TV caught my eye. A family was standing outside a house staring at it. One of them finally asked “what are we waiting for?” The reply, “I don’t know, THEY said we should wait”. The wife replies, “but I want one now!”

The subject of course being, “is this the right time to buy?” A lot has been written on market timing and probably never more so than now with everyone wondering if we have “hit the bottom of the market.”

Google “real estate market timing” and you will get more than 3 million sites and you will find may programs that claim to teach you how to time the market. However, most experts agree that no one will ever time the market perfectly, and it’s not necessary. The most important thing is to take each investment and judge it by the numbers. Right now may be the best time to buy if the numbers work. The prices are lower, interest rates are down, inventory is high and in many cases the exchange rates are extremely favorable.

But even when market conditions are extremely favorable many sit on the sidelines waiting for the “bottom of the market”. One cannot know if the market will get drastically worse or when it will get better, but almost everyone agrees it will get better.

Many are familiar with Warren Buffet’s famous quote that says, “When the market get’s greedy, I get nervous. When the market get’s nervous, I get greedy.” Is it time to “get greedy,” probably not, greed is probably what got us here.

But is it time to invest wisely?

Investing always involves risk and one should try to avoid the extremes. Home ownership, whether it be your primary residence or a vacation home, should not keep you awake at night worrying about it. If you think the worse is yet to come, you are probably in the minority but should none the less wait. But waiting carries the risk that interest rates and home prices will start to rise. For the majority taking the long term outlook is probably the better choice and then perfect timing is irrelevant.

Often, in the end, waiting buyers risk paying more than they need to, whether that is on the price of the home or the monthly payment because of the interest rates.

The real question to ask yourself isn’t whether you will get a good deal, but whether you will get the best deal. The reality is, many will miss out on a ‘good deal’ waiting for the ‘best deal’, which no one can predict.

Linda Elrick is a sales associate for Coldwell Banker Turks and Caicos. Linda and her husband vacationed in the Turks and Caicos for 10 years prior to moving here in 2000 from Canada.

Linda has worked extensively in Rental and Vacation Management handling rentals and property management before moving into Real Estate Sales in 2006. With her experience in managing Vacation Properties in the Turks & Caicos Islands, Linda is uniquely qualified to help her client realize their dream of home ownership in the Caribbean.

by Linda Elrick, Coldwell Banker TCI

 

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